Observing this past Saturday’s trio of homework races, the Westgate SuperBook at Las Vegas upgraded its 2019 Kentucky Derby futures odds, with Roadster, the winner of the Santa Anita Derby, the brand new 9/2 favorite.
The last two preps before the Run for the Roses on May 4 — the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park and the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland — just take place this Saturday, and the consequence of those races could impact everybody’s Derby list.
However, is there any value available on Kentucky Derby futures wagers right now?
The ideal scenario for a Kentucky Derby futures bet is to locate a horse, or horses, in their two-year-old season that have demonstrated extreme ability and the capability to progress. When the first list of Derby futures comes out, there is typically a few hundred horses around the menu. You are hoping to snag a horse with triple-digit odds you spotted as a developing monster which can win enough races and keep solid and healthy enough to keep the Derby trail.
Along with the goal of a Kentucky Derby futures bet would be to see your horse turn it into the gate the first Saturday in May at”live odds” across the lines of 5/1 or so, as you’re in possession of a ticket you bought months earlier at 250/1.
While that perfect opportunity has passed most of us , worth may still exist around the futures .
But potential bets can be dicey, and also the road to the Kentucky Derby is a rocky path for many young horses. If your horse ceases doing well and is removed from the Derby trail, gets hurt or simply has a cough on race day and can’t compete, you do not receive your money back.
No matter how many three-year olds are offered in Kentucky Derby futures (the Westgate now lists 33), only 20 horses will begin and only one will pay off to win.
And, not to be a total downer, but there’s also the possible nightmare of wagering on a horse in advance and watching him move off at higher odds on race day.
Such was the case once I made a futures bet on the 2013 Kentucky Derby on a horse called Vyjack. I was happy to get 17/1 chances a couple months ahead of this race and even happier when he left it to the gate in May. I wasn’t so happy if he went off at 37/1 at post time, and even though the horse didn’t increase a hoof, my choice to bet early robbed me of an expected payout more than double in size.
However, let us see where the value lies, and where it doesn’t, on the Westgate’s 2019 Kentucky Derby futures oddsboard.
Favorites with no value:
ROADSTER is the 9/2 favorite in this pool off his recent winning performance in the Santa Anita Derby, and there is no value , as it might appear he will go off at comparable chances at short time.
At 6/1, IMPROBABLE is your second choice, and the value isn’t here, either. It is unlikely he’ll win the Derby but very probable he will be in the range of 6/1 or 8/1 on Derby Day.
OMAHA BEACH is the best Derby prospect at this moment in time, and he’s the third choice at 7/1 on this list. But I am hoping to get at least 4/1 or even 5/1 on race day, and although there’s a small bit of value there, I’d wait until race time to bet him.
GAME WINNER, 8/1, has become the favored in his past four races and hasn’t gone at odds greater than 2/1. Now is the time to fire if you like this runner. His chances will probably be about double what he’ll be at post time.
VEKOMA, 16/1, is arriving of a sharp win at the Bluegrass Stakes, and his futures odds give you roughly double the value you’ll get on Derby day.
HAIKAL, in 40/1, will give you approximately three times the value today than this horse will be in post time.
CODE OF HONOR at 25/1. If you enjoy this competent horse, 25/1 should have you jumping up and down. He must be single digits around post time, and he is surely worth a wager at the long early price.
Longshots having a chance:
2019 Kentucky Derby futures chances As of Tuesday, April 9 at Westgate SuperBook
OMAHA BEACH 7/1
GAME WINNER 8/1
MAXIMUM SECURITY 8/1
LONG RANGE TODDY 12/1
CODE OF HONOR 25/1
WIN WIN WIN 25/1
WAR OF WILL 30/1
BOURBON WAR 30/1
CUTTING HUMOR 30/1
BY MY STANDARDS 40/1
PLUS QUE PARFAIT 40/1
MUCHO GUSTO 50/1
COUNTRY HOUSE 60/1
GRAY MAGICIAN 60/1
SIR WINSTON 100/1
MASTER FENCER 100/1
FROSTED ICE 100/1
GRAY ATTEMPT 200/1
KNICKS GO 300/1